Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?     

Gorka Merino  Manuel Barange  Julia L. Blanchard  James Harle  Robert Holmes  Icarus Allen  Edward H. Allison  Marie Caroline Badjeck  Nicholas K. Dulvy  Jason Holt  Simon Jennings  Christian Mullon  Lynda D. Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):795-806

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.  相似文献   

Regional modelling of permafrost thicknesses over the past 130 ka: implications for permafrost development in Great Britain          下载免费PDF全文

Jonathan P. Busby  Jonathan R. Lee  Sev Kender  Paul Williamson  Simon Norris 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(1):46-60

The greatest thicknesses of permafrost in Great Britain most likely occurred during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, as this is when some of the coldest conditions occurred during the last 1 000 000 years. The regional development of permafrost across Great Britain during the last glacial–interglacial cycle was modelled from a ground surface temperature history based on mean annual temperatures and the presence of glacier ice. To quantify the growth and decay of permafrost, modelling was undertaken at six locations across Great Britain that represent upland glaciated, lowland glaciated, upland unglaciated and lowland unglaciated conditions. Maximum predicted permafrost depths derived in this academic study range between several tens of metres to over 100 m depending upon various factors including elevation, glacier ice cover, geothermal heat flux and air temperature. In general, the greatest maximum permafrost thicknesses occur at upland glaciated locations, with minimum thickness at lowland sites. Current direct geological evidence for permafrost is from surface or shallow processes, mainly associated with the active layer. Further research is recommended to identify the imprint of freeze/thaw conditions in permanently frozen porous rocks from beneath the active layer.  相似文献   

Hydrological responses to climatic variability in a cold agricultural region          下载免费PDF全文

Taufique H. Mahmood  John W. Pomeroy  Howard S. Wheater  Helen M. Baulch 《水文研究》2017,31(4):854-870

Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff.  相似文献   

The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan     

Richard A. Staff  Takeshi Nakagawa  Gordon Schlolaut  Michael H. Marshall  Achim Brauer  Henry F. Lamb  Christopher Bronk Ramsey  Charlotte L. Bryant  Fiona Brock  Hiroyuki Kitagawa  Johannes van der Plicht  Rebecca L. Payne  Victoria C. Smith  Darren F. Mark  Alison Macleod  Simon P. E. Blockley  Jean‐Luc Schwenninger  Pavel E. Tarasov  Tsuyoshi Haraguchi  Katsuya Gotanda  Hitoshi Yonenobu  Yusuke Yokoyama  Suigetsu Project Members 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(2):259-266

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).  相似文献   

Propagation of coastal‐trapped waves under an ice cover in Hudson Bay*     

Thierry Reynaud  R. Grant Ingram  Howard J. Freeland  Andrew J. Weaver 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):593-620

Abstract

Three arrays of current‐meter moorings were deployed under landfast sea ice in southeast Hudson Bay for eight weeks in spring 1986. Spectral analysis shows low‐frequency signals with periods of 3 to 11 days. These signals are interpreted as being due to coastal‐trapped waves propagating cyclonically in Hudson Bay; their theoretical dispersion relations and corresponding modal structures are presented for winter stratification and are compared with observations. At a period of 3 days both the modified external Kelvin wave and higher mode continental shelf waves may be important in describing the observed low‐frequency variability, whereas at a period of 10 days the Kelvin wave appears to be the dominant mode. The generation mechanisms for these coastal trapped waves are also investigated. Two sources have been studied: the longshore atmospheric pressure gradient and the average atmospheric pressure over the ice cover in Hudson Bay. Coherence and phase analyses performed with time series of longshore current and atmospheric forcing data reveal that both the average atmospheric pressure and the longshore atmospheric pressure gradient are important in explaining the observed low‐frequency variability, without indicating which one is the most important.  相似文献   

Formation of intracratonic basins by lithospheric shortening and phase changes: a case study from the ultra‐deep East Barents Sea basin     

Sébastien Gac  Ritske S. Huismans  Nina S. C. Simon  Yuri Y. Podladchikov  Jan Inge Faleide 《地学学报》2013,25(6):459-464

The origin of large subsidence in intracratonic basins is still under debate. We propose a new and self‐consistent model for the formation of those basins, where lithospheric shortening/buckling triggers metamorphism and densification of crustal mafic heterogeneities. We use a forward thermo‐mechanical finite element technique to evaluate this mechanism for the typical example of the East Barents Sea basin (EBB) where a very large and compensated subsidence, accommodating an up to 20‐km‐thick sediment succession, is observed. The lower crust in the dynamic model is modelled with petrologic‐consistent densities for a wet mafic gabbroic composition that depend on pressure and temperature taking into account dehydration at high PT conditions. The model successfully explains the main characteristics of the EBB, notably the large anomalous and fast subsidence during the Late Permian–Early Triassic, its present‐day geometry and the absence of a significant gravity anomaly.  相似文献   

Thermodynamics of plagioclase III: Spontaneous strain at the I\overline 1 - P\overline 1 phase transition in Ca-rich plagioclase     

Simon A. T. Redfern  Ann Graeme-Barber  Ekhard Salje 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1988,16(2):157-163

The lattice parameters of anorthites An₉₈Ab₂ and An₁₀₀ have been measured from 22 to 1100 K. The spontaneous strain arising from the \(I\overline 1 - P\overline 1\) displacive transition in An₉₈ follows second order Landau behaviour. The spontaneous strain (? _s) couples quadratically to the order parameter (Q ⁰) with ? _s∝Q ⁰²∝(T _c ^* ?T) and T _c ^* =530 K in An₉₈. This is in contrast to the tricritical behaviour observed in pure anorthite. These observations are consistent with a Landau model for the free energy of Ca-rich plagioclases in which Al/Si order and Na content renormalize the fourth order coefficient.  相似文献   

Observations of mid-troposhheric circulation from water vapour radiances of polar orbiting satellites     

M S Narayanan  P K Pal  P C Joshi  M Mali  Baby Simon 《Journal of Earth System Science》1989,98(3):247-254

Water vapour tracers can provide useful information on winds at ≈ 500mb by observing the 6·7μ radiances. This fills the data gap in the cloud motion winds provided by conventional meteorological geostationary satellites. There is no geostationary satellite at present over the Indian Ocean with 6·7μ imaging capability to provide mid-tropospheric winds. The potentials of 6·7μ radiances, available from polar orbiting satellites, for mid-tropospheric circulation features have been examined in this study. Tiros-N satellite data of May 1979 and ECMWF level-IIIb wind data were analysed to relate the radiances with the streamlines. We find that the radiances of 6·7μ from orbiting satellites agree well with the wind field.  相似文献   

Ultraviolet absorption cross-sections of chloro and chlorofluoro-methanes at stratospheric temperatures     

P. C. Simon  D. Gillotay  N. Vanlaethem-Meuree  J. Wisemberg 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1988,7(2):107-135

Absorption cross-sections of nine halomethanes (CCl₄, CHCl₃, CH₂Cl₂, CH₃Cl, CFCl₃, CF₂Cl₂, CF₃Cl, CHFCl₂, and CHF₂Cl), measured between 174 and 250 nm for temperatures ranging from 225 to 295 K, are presented with uncertainties ranging from 2 to 4% and compared with previous determinations made for comparable temperature ranges.The largest temperature effect which takes place near the absorption threshold, decreases the absorption cross-section up to 50% for highly chlorinated methanes, but is negligible for molecules highly stabilized by hydrogen and/or fluorine. Extrapolated values for temperatures of aeronomical interest are presented, as well as parametrical formulas which give absorption cross-section values for given wavelength and temperature ranges.  相似文献   

The reserves of extracted resources: Historical data     

Julian L. Simon  Guenter Weinrauch  Stephen Moore 《Natural Resources Research》1994,3(4):325-340

The available data on known reserves of extracted resources have not previously been tabulated and graphed. In this article we compile the reserves data in one place for the first time. This serves to (1) show the trends in the reserves series, (2) make the series available to others, and (3) place the reserves data in the context of price data for which longer series have been available, and with which they can now be seen to be consistent in both showing increasing availability rather than increasing scarcity.  相似文献